How Montreal by-polls can deal a blow to faltering support for Canadian PM Justin Trudeau

The pressure is mounting on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as his Liberal Party braces for a crucial by-election in Montreal. With declining approval ratings and increasing calls for his resignation, the upcoming vote can possibly become a pivotal moment for Trudeau’s leadership.
In a district that has long been a Liberal stronghold, Montreal will host a fierce contest on Monday, with polls showing a tight race between the Liberals, Bloc Québécois, and the New Democratic Party (NDP).According to Al-Jazeera, what once seemed like a safe seat is now teetering as voters wrestle with inflation, a housing crisis, and a general disillusionment with Trudeau’s government.
The by-election is more than just a local contest. Analysts believe it could serve as an indicator of the party’s fortunes heading into the next general election, which must occur before October 2025. Trudeau, who has managed to survive several political storms, now faces the possibility of this by-election becoming a ‘turning point’.
But the challenges for Trudeau are not just external. Internally, the Liberal Party is fracturing. Some MPs have grown weary of his leadership, particularly after the NDP decided to withdraw from a 2022 agreement that had helped sustain Trudeau’s minority government.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, withdrawing support from the Trudeau government, had said, “Justin Trudeau has proven again and again he will always cave to corporate greed. The Liberals have let people down. They don’t deserve another chance.”

This frustration was visible when, in June, a Liberal MP publicly urged Trudeau to step aside after a by-election defeat in Toronto. The discord within the party has reached a point where some members are declining to actively support the Montreal campaign.
Recent polls suggest that the race is far from certain. The Bloc Québécois candidate leads with 29.6% of the vote, while the Liberals trail at 24.1%, followed closely by the NDP at 23%. The Conservatives lag at just 7.3%, offering little challenge.
Trudeau says ‘not going anywhere’ regardless of result
Trudeau has declared his intention to remain the leader of the Liberal party, even in the face of a potential defeat in the upcoming Montreal byelection.
“I’m not going anywhere,” Trudeau told Montreal radio station CJAD 800 in a recent interview. Even if his party loses the by-election, Trudeau insists he will stay on to lead the fight against forces he believes are detrimental to the country. “I’ve got a fight to lead against people who want to hurt this country, who want to hurt our communities,” he said.