Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris is still a toss-up, pollster Nate Silver said.
Prominent pollster Nate Silver whose poll prediction is rarely wrong said though Kamala Harris is leading the race, Americans should be making contingency plans for the prospect of a Trump victory as this election is proving to be a knife-edge one with 50-50 chances. “One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away.It doesn’t mean you need (to stockpile) ammo and peanut butter but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term? Or, in 2028 (or) 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump?” Nate told the Guardian.
“If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.”
Silver’s model correctly predicted the results of the 2008, 2012 and the 2020 elections but about 2024, he said it’s still a “toss-up”. According to his 2024 model, Harris retains a modest lead in the probability of winning the election and the popular vote, as well as a 63 percent probability of winning swing state Michigan and a 57 percent chance of taking the crucial state of Pennsylvania.
Nate Silver’s election forecast showed Kamala Harris beating Trump, 49 per cent to 46.3 per cent.
In the Guardian interview, Nate said he fears a second Trump administration but he said painting Trump as an existential threat to democracy is not the right political strategy for the Dems. “Biden was like: ‘OK, sure, I may be running for president until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it’ – that’s a very unappealing message to swing voters … whereas Harris brings more joyfulness and is obviously a very talented woman,” Nate said. But he thinks Kamala Harris retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was good to keep running Biden.
“If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.”
Silver’s model correctly predicted the results of the 2008, 2012 and the 2020 elections but about 2024, he said it’s still a “toss-up”. According to his 2024 model, Harris retains a modest lead in the probability of winning the election and the popular vote, as well as a 63 percent probability of winning swing state Michigan and a 57 percent chance of taking the crucial state of Pennsylvania.
Nate Silver’s election forecast showed Kamala Harris beating Trump, 49 per cent to 46.3 per cent.
In the Guardian interview, Nate said he fears a second Trump administration but he said painting Trump as an existential threat to democracy is not the right political strategy for the Dems. “Biden was like: ‘OK, sure, I may be running for president until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it’ – that’s a very unappealing message to swing voters … whereas Harris brings more joyfulness and is obviously a very talented woman,” Nate said. But he thinks Kamala Harris retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was good to keep running Biden.
Source : Times of India
