Americans are set to witness one of the closest presidential race of the century between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris with the recent surveys showing results falling within the margin of error, particularly when considering the electoral college dynamics, CNN reported.
When looking at all national surveys conducted since the recent debate—including those from ABC News/Ipsos, Fox News, and The New York Times/Siena College—the average, according to the latest CNN Poll of Polls, shows Harris ahead by just 3 points.This narrow margin highlights the competitive nature of the upcoming election.
Meanwhile, polling data released on Sunday by CBS News and NBC News indicates that vice president Kamala Harris holds leads of 4 and 5 points, respectively.
Since 1960, every presidential election year has featured at least three weeks where one candidate led by 5 points or more.
Currently, a 3-point lead in the national polls offers little assurance for Harris. Historically, since 1948, the average discrepancy between polls just before the election and the actual Election Day results has been 3 points. In some instances, such as in 2020, this margin of error has been even greater.
Neither candidate has been able to secure a lead of 5 points or more in national polling, even during the period when President Joe Biden was the likely and later presumptive Democratic nominee.
The lack of a clear lead of at least 5 points this election cycle is significant, as it is quite rare in close races for candidates not to gain a substantial advantage at some point.
When looking at all national surveys conducted since the recent debate—including those from ABC News/Ipsos, Fox News, and The New York Times/Siena College—the average, according to the latest CNN Poll of Polls, shows Harris ahead by just 3 points.This narrow margin highlights the competitive nature of the upcoming election.
Meanwhile, polling data released on Sunday by CBS News and NBC News indicates that vice president Kamala Harris holds leads of 4 and 5 points, respectively.
Since 1960, every presidential election year has featured at least three weeks where one candidate led by 5 points or more.
Currently, a 3-point lead in the national polls offers little assurance for Harris. Historically, since 1948, the average discrepancy between polls just before the election and the actual Election Day results has been 3 points. In some instances, such as in 2020, this margin of error has been even greater.
Neither candidate has been able to secure a lead of 5 points or more in national polling, even during the period when President Joe Biden was the likely and later presumptive Democratic nominee.
The lack of a clear lead of at least 5 points this election cycle is significant, as it is quite rare in close races for candidates not to gain a substantial advantage at some point.
Source : Times of India
